The Zebra's 2026 State of Insurance report projects Oregon, Maryland, and Utah will see the steepest auto insurance rate increases this year. Maryland faces hikes of up to 21% by mid-2026, according to an analysis of 32 million car insurance rates. Meanwhile, 13 other states are on track for rate decreases of 6% to 13%.
Three States Bucking the National Trend
Auto insurance premiums fell 6% nationally in 2025, according to Insurify's State of Auto Insurance report. The national average now sits at $2,256 per year, per The Zebra's 2026 analysis of 32 million rates. Drivers in Oregon, Maryland, and Utah won't share in that relief. We covered a similar pattern in our analysis of which states saw surging rates earlier this year.
The Zebra projects Oregon will see rate increases of 9% to 17% in Q1 2026, accelerating to 14% to 17% in Q2. Maryland faces even steeper climbs of 9% to 14% in Q1, reaching 14% to 21% by mid-year. Utah rounds out the top three with projected hikes of 9% to 13% in Q1 and 8% to 12% in Q2.
- Maryland projected for the highest increases nationally, up to 21% by Q2 2026, per The Zebra
- Oregon rates could climb 14% to 17% in Q2, driven by wildfire risk, a 14% uninsured motorist rate, and rising repair costs
- Utah faces 8% to 13% hikes linked to population growth along the Wasatch Front and a 15% uninsured driver rate
- Vermont, Minnesota, and Mississippi are moving the opposite direction, with projected decreases of 6% to 13%
State-by-State Rate Projections for 2026
| State | Current Avg. (Full Coverage/Year) | Q1 2026 Projected Change | Q2 2026 Projected Change | vs. National Avg. ($2,256) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | $2,121 | +9% to +17% | +14% to +17% | 6% below |
| Maryland | $3,039 | +9% to +14% | +14% to +21% | 35% above |
| Utah | $1,684 | +9% to +13% | +8% to +12% | 25% below |
| National Avg. | $2,256 | +3% from 2025 | -- | |
Source: The Zebra 2026 State of Insurance report, based on 32 million+ car insurance rates sourced from Quadrant Information Services and S&P Global. Oregon and Utah full-coverage averages from Bankrate (November 2025 rate data). Maryland figure from Bankrate. Full coverage includes liability, collision, and comprehensive for a driver with a clean record.
A 17% increase on Oregon's $2,121 average translates to roughly $360 more per year, or $30 extra per month. Maryland drivers already paying $3,039 could face an additional $638 annually at the 21% high end, pushing full-coverage costs above $3,670 per year. Utah's $1,684 average would climb by $135 to $219 per year at the projected range.
Why Oregon Rates Are Climbing
Oregon's 14% uninsured motorist rate exceeds the 12.6% national average, according to the Insurance Research Council. Insurers spread the cost of uninsured driver claims across all policyholders, adding roughly $100 to $200 per year to the average premium in high-uninsured states.
Wildfire risk is compounding the problem. Oregon experienced record wildfire seasons in 2020 and 2024, with comprehensive claims from smoke damage, falling debris, and evacuation-related incidents pushing insurers to reprice risk. The Oregon Division of Financial Regulation reported a 23% increase in comprehensive claim payouts between 2022 and 2024.
Rising auto repair costs are a third factor. Vehicles equipped with advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) cost 25% to 30% more to repair than older models, according to AAA. Oregon's Portland metro area, home to 2.1 million drivers, sees the highest repair labor rates in the state at $65 to $85 per hour.
Why Maryland Faces the Steepest Hikes
Maryland already ranks as the second most expensive state for car insurance nationally, per Bankrate's 2026 analysis. The Baltimore-Washington corridor's dense traffic, high accident frequency, and litigation-friendly legal environment have kept premiums elevated for years.
A new coverage mandate is adding to the cost. Since July 1, 2024, all new Maryland auto policies automatically include Enhanced Underinsured Motorist (EUIM) coverage unless the policyholder explicitly waives it in writing, according to the Maryland Insurance Administration. EUIM allows policyholders to stack their own coverage on top of the at-fault driver's limits. A driver with $50,000 in UM coverage can now recover up to $75,000 total in a crash with an underinsured driver carrying $25,000 in liability.
That expanded protection comes at a price. The Maryland Insurance Administration estimates EUIM adds $50 to $150 per year to the average policy, depending on coverage limits and the carrier. Many policyholders who did not explicitly opt out are seeing the charge on their renewals for the first time in early 2026.
Why Utah Premiums Are Rising
Utah's Wasatch Front corridor, stretching from Ogden through Salt Lake City to Provo, has added more than 300,000 residents since 2020, according to U.S. Census estimates. More drivers on the road means higher claim frequency, which directly pressures premiums upward.
Vehicle theft jumped 23% statewide in 2022, with over 15,000 cars stolen across Utah, per FBI Uniform Crime Report data. Insurers respond to rising theft claims by increasing comprehensive coverage premiums, particularly in urban areas like Salt Lake County where most thefts occur.
Utah's 15% uninsured driver rate also exceeds the national average of 12.6%, according to the Insurance Research Council. Severe hailstorms along the Wasatch Front in 2024 and 2025 generated thousands of comprehensive claims, further straining carrier loss ratios in the state.
States Heading the Other Direction
The Zebra's projections show 13 states on track for rate decreases across one or both quarters of 2026. Vermont leads with a projected 6% to 13% decrease, followed by Minnesota at 6% to 8% and Mississippi at 6% to 9%.
Florida is another bright spot. The state's top five auto insurers are cutting rates by an average of 8% in 2026, according to Florida Insurance Commissioner Mike Yaworsky. State Farm alone has reduced Florida rates by more than 20% since 2024, saving Florida drivers over $1 billion annually.
The Zebra's projections show Q2 2026 increases will be steeper than Q1 in both Oregon and Maryland. Drivers in these states should compare quotes before their next renewal date. Locking in a new policy before mid-year rate adjustments take effect could save $200 to $400 annually.
What You Should Do Now
Check Your Renewal Date
Log into your insurer's portal or call your agent to find your renewal date. Q2 rate increases take effect starting April through June 2026, so drivers renewing after April should compare quotes now.
Get at Least Three Competing Quotes
Bankrate data shows the gap between the cheapest and most expensive carriers in Oregon can exceed $1,800 per year for the same coverage. In Maryland, that spread reaches $2,400. Comparing at least three quotes from carriers like State Farm, Progressive, and GEICO takes 15 to 20 minutes. Our guide on how to compare car insurance quotes walks through the process step by step.
Ask About Telematics Discounts
Progressive's Snapshot, State Farm's Drive Safe & Save, and Allstate's Drivewise programs offer 10% to 30% discounts for safe driving, according to each carrier's published discount schedules. These programs are especially valuable in states where base rates are climbing.
Review Your Coverage Limits
Maryland drivers should check whether EUIM coverage was added to their policy since July 2024. Opting out requires a written waiver filed with your insurer, per the Maryland Insurance Administration. Keeping EUIM adds $50 to $150 per year but provides significantly better protection in crashes with underinsured drivers.
The Bigger Picture
Nationally, 19 states are projected for rate increases in 2026, while 13 are expected to see decreases, according to The Zebra's analysis. The remaining states showed results too close to call or lacked sufficient data. This split reflects a two-speed insurance market where tort reform states like Florida are seeing relief while states with high uninsured rates, litigation costs, or weather exposure continue to climb. Our breakdown of why auto insurance rates are rising nationwide explains the broader forces at work.
The Zebra's David Seider, the company's Chief Commercial Officer, predicts competition will intensify in 2026. Carriers are taking targeted rate reductions in certain markets while raising prices where loss ratios remain unfavorable. Drivers who compare quotes stand to benefit from this competitive landscape, even in states where average rates are rising.
The national affordability picture adds context. The median annual premium across the U.S. is $1,933, representing 2.6% of the $74,481 per capita income, per The Zebra. In Maryland, where premiums run 35% above the national average, insurance consumes a larger share of household income, particularly for drivers in Baltimore, where median incomes are 18% below the state average.
Frequently Asked Questions
The Zebra projects Oregon auto insurance rates will increase 9% to 17% in Q1 2026 and 14% to 17% in Q2, based on an analysis of 32 million rates. On Oregon's current $2,121 full-coverage average, that translates to roughly $190 to $360 more per year.
Maryland ranks as the second most expensive state for car insurance, with an average full-coverage cost of $3,039 per year according to Bankrate. Dense traffic in the Baltimore-Washington corridor, a litigation-friendly legal environment, and a new Enhanced Underinsured Motorist coverage mandate effective since July 2024 are all contributing to higher premiums.
Utah's rate increases are driven by rapid population growth along the Wasatch Front (300,000+ new residents since 2020), a 23% jump in vehicle thefts in 2022, severe hailstorm claims, and a 15% uninsured driver rate that exceeds the national average of 12.6%.
Vermont (6% to 13% decrease), Minnesota (6% to 8%), and Mississippi (6% to 9%) are projected for the largest rate decreases in 2026, according to The Zebra. Florida's top five insurers are also cutting rates by an average of 8%, per the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation.
Comparing quotes before your renewal date is the most effective way to avoid overpaying. Bankrate data shows the gap between the cheapest and most expensive carrier in Oregon exceeds $1,800 per year for the same coverage. Getting quotes from at least three carriers takes 15 to 20 minutes and could save hundreds of dollars annually.
- The Zebra - 2026 State of Insurance Auto Trend Report
- Bankrate - Average Cost of Car Insurance in Oregon for 2026
- Bankrate - Average Cost of Car Insurance in Maryland for 2026
- Bankrate - Average Cost of Car Insurance in Utah for 2026
- Maryland Insurance Administration - Enhanced Underinsured Motorist Coverage
- Insurify - Car Insurance Prices Tumbled 6% in 2025: 2026 State Projections
- Utah Insurance Department - Why Is My Auto Insurance Premium Increasing?